Incorporation of climate change into a multiple stressor risk assessment for the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) population in the Yakima River, Washington, USA.

One outcome of the 2022 Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston Workshop on incorporating climate change predictions into ecological risk assessments was the key question of how to integrate ecological risk assessments that focus on contaminants with the environmental alterations from climate projections. This article summarizes the results of integrating selected direct and indirect effects of climate change into an existing Bayesian network previously used for ecological risk assessment. The existing Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model integrated the effects of two organophosphate pesticides (malathion and diazinon), water temperature, and dissolved oxygen levels on the Chinook salmon population in the Yakima River Basin (YRB), Washington, USA. The endpoint was defined as the entity, Yakima River metapopulation, and the attribute was defined as no decline to a subpopulation or the overall metapopulation. In this manner, we addressed the management objective of no net loss of Chinook salmon, an iconic and protected species. Climate change-induced changes in water quality parameters (temperature and dissolved oxygen levels) used models based on projected climatic conditions in the 2050s and 2080s by the use of a probabilistic model. Pesticide concentrations in the original model were modified assuming different scenarios of pest control strategies in the future, because climate change may alter pest numbers and species. Our results predict that future direct and indirect changes to the YRB will result in a greater probability that the salmon population will continue to fail to meet the management objective of no net loss. As indicated by the sensitivity analysis, the key driver in salmon population risk was found to be current and future changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen, with pesticide concentrations being not as important. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:419-432. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach.

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This article explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near- and long-term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State-of-the-art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:367-383. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Incorporating climate change model projections into ecological risk assessments to help inform risk management and adaptation strategies: Synthesis of a SETAC Pellston Workshop®.

The impacts of global climate change are not yet well integrated with the estimates of the impacts of chemicals on the environment. This is evidenced by the lack of consideration in national or international reports that evaluate the impacts of climate change and chemicals on ecosystems and the relatively few peer-reviewed publications that have focused on this interaction. In response, a 2011 Pellston Workshop® was held on this issue and resulted in seven publications in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. Yet, these publications did not move the field toward climate change and chemicals as important factors together in research or policy-making. Here, we summarize the outcomes of a second Pellston Workshop® on this topic held in 2022 that included climate scientists, environmental toxicologists, chemists, and ecological risk assessors from 14 countries and various sectors. Participants were charged with assessing where climate models can be applied to evaluating potential exposure and ecological effects at geographical and temporal scales suitable for ecological risk assessment, and thereby be incorporated into adaptive risk management strategies. We highlight results from the workshop's five publications included in the special series "Incorporating Global Climate Change into Ecological Risk Assessments: Strategies, Methods and Examples." We end this summary with the overall conclusions and recommendations from participants. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:359-366. © 2023 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Critical gaps in nanoplastics research and their connection to risk assessment.

Reports of plastics, at higher levels than previously thought, in the water that we drink and the air that we breathe, are generating considerable interest and concern. Plastics have been recorded in almost every environment in the world with estimates on the order of trillions of microplastic pieces. Yet, this may very well be an underestimate of plastic pollution as a whole. Once microplastics (<5 mm) break down in the environment, they nominally enter the nanoscale (<1,000 nm), where they cannot be seen by the naked eye or even with the use of a typical laboratory microscope. Thus far, research has focused on plastics in the macro- (>25 mm) and micro-size ranges, which are easier to detect and identify, leaving large knowledge gaps in our understanding of nanoplastic debris. Our ability to ask and answer questions relating to the transport, fate, and potential toxicity of these particles is disadvantaged by the detection and identification limits of current technology. Furthermore, laboratory exposures have been substantially constrained to the study of commercially available nanoplastics; i.e., polystyrene spheres, which do not adequately reflect the composition of environmental plastic debris. While a great deal of plastic-focused research has been published in recent years, the pattern of the work does not answer a number of key factors vital to calculating risk that takes into account the smallest plastic particles; namely, sources, fate and transport, exposure measures, toxicity and effects. These data are critical to inform regulatory decision making and to implement adaptive management strategies that mitigate risk to human health and the environment. This paper reviews the current state-of-the-science on nanoplastic research, highlighting areas where data are needed to establish robust risk assessments that take into account plastics pollution. Where nanoplastic-specific data are not available, suggested substitutions are indicated.

Key challenges and developments in wildlife ecological risk assessment: Problem formulation.

Problem formulation (PF) is a critical initial step in planning risk assessments for chemical exposures to wildlife, used either explicitly or implicitly in various jurisdictions to include registration of new pesticides, evaluation of new and existing chemicals released to the environment, and characterization of impact when chemical releases have occurred. Despite improvements in our understanding of the environment, ecology, and biological sciences, few risk assessments have used this information to enhance their value and predictive capabilities. In addition to advances in organism-level mechanisms and methods, there have been substantive developments that focus on population- and systems-level processes. Although most of the advances have been recognized as being state-of-the-science for two decades or more, there is scant evidence that they have been incorporated into wildlife risk assessment or risk assessment in general. In this article, we identify opportunities to consider elevating the relevance of wildlife risk assessments by focusing on elements of the PF stage of risk assessment, especially in the construction of conceptual models and selection of assessment endpoints that target population- and system-level endpoints. Doing so will remain consistent with four established steps of existing guidance: (1) establish clear protection goals early in the process; (2) consider how data collection using new methods will affect decisions, given all possibilities, and develop a decision plan a priori; (3) engage all relevant stakeholders in creating a robust, holistic conceptual model that incorporates plausible stressors that could affect the targets defined in the protection goals; and (4) embrace the need for iteration throughout the PF steps (recognizing that multiple passes may be required before agreeing on a feasible plan for the rest of the risk assessment). Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;00:1-16. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Recommendations for environmental risk assessment of gene drive applications for malaria vector control.

Building on an exercise that identified potential harms from simulated investigational releases of a population suppression gene drive for malaria vector control, a series of online workshops identified nine recommendations to advance future environmental risk assessment of gene drive applications.

Bayesian network-based risk assessment of synthetic biology: Simulating CRISPR-Cas9 gene drive dynamics in invasive rodent management.

Gene drive technology has been proposed to control invasive rodent populations as an alternative to rodenticides. However, this approach has not undergone risk assessment that meets criteria established by Gene Drives on the Horizon, a 2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. To conduct a risk assessment of gene drives, we employed the Bayesian network-relative risk model to calculate the risk of mouse eradication on Southeast Farallon Island using a CRISPR-Cas9 homing gene drive construct. We modified and implemented the R-based model "MGDrivE" to simulate and compare 60 management strategies for gene drive rodent management. These scenarios spanned four gene drive mouse release schemes, three gene drive homing rates, three levels of supplemental rodenticide dose, and two timings of rodenticide application relative to gene drive release. Simulation results showed that applying a supplemental rodenticide simultaneously with gene drive mouse deployment resulted in faster eradication of the island mouse population. Gene drive homing rate had the highest influence on the overall probability of successful eradication, as increased gene drive accuracy reduces the likelihood of mice developing resistance to the CRISPR-Cas9 homing mechanism.

Integrating Metapopulation Dynamics into a Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model: Assessing Risk of Pesticides to Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in an Ecological Context.

The population level is often the biological endpoint addressed in ecological risk assessments (ERAs). However, ERAs tend to ignore the metapopulation structure, which precludes an understanding of how population viability is affected by multiple stressors (e.g., toxicants and environmental conditions) at large spatial scales. Here we integrate metapopulation model simulations into a regional-scale, multiple stressors risk assessment (Bayesian network relative risk model [BN-RRM]) of organophosphate (OP) exposure, water temperature, and DO impacts on Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). A matrix metapopulation model was developed for spring Chinook salmon in the Yakima River Basin (YRB), Washington, USA, including 3 locally adapted subpopulations and hatchery fish that interact with those subpopulations. Three metapopulation models (an exponential model, a ceiling density-dependent model, and an exponential model without dispersal) were integrated into the BN-RRM to evaluate the effects of population model assumptions on risk calculations. Risk was defined as the percent probability that the abundance of a subpopulation would decline from their initial abundance (500 000). This definition of risk reflects the Puget Sound Partnership's management goal of achieving "no net loss" of Chinook abundance. The BN-RRM model results for projection year 20 showed that risk (in % probability) from OPs and environmental stressors was higher for the wild subpopulations-the American River (50.9%-97.7%) and Naches (39.8%-84.4%) spring Chinook-than for the hatchery population (CESRF 18.5%-46.5%) and the Upper Yakima subpopulation (21.5%-68.7%). Metapopulation risk was higher in summer (58.1%-68.7%) than in winter (33.6%-53.2%), and this seasonal risk pattern was conserved at the subpopulation level. To reach the management goal in the American River spring Chinook subpopulation, the water temperature conditions in the Lower Yakima River would need to decrease. We demonstrate that 1) relative risk can vary across a metapopulation's spatial range, 2) dispersal among patches impacts subpopulation abundance and risk, and 3) local adaptation within a salmon metapopulation can profoundly impact subpopulation responses to equivalent stressors. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:95-109. © 2020 SETAC.

The Origin, Development, Application, Lessons Learned, and Future Regarding the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model for Ecological Risk Assessment.

In 2012, a regional risk assessment was published that applied Bayesian networks (BN) to the structure of the relative risk model. The original structure of the relative risk model (RRM) was published in the late 1990s and developed during the next decade. The RRM coupled with a Monte Carlo analysis was applied to calculating risk to a number of sites and a variety of questions. The sites included watersheds, terrestrial systems, and marine environments and included stressors such as nonindigenous species, effluents, pesticides, nutrients, and management options. However, it became apparent that there were limits to the original approach. In 2009, the relative risk model was transitioned into the structure of a BN. Bayesian networks had several clear advantages. First, BNs innately incorporated categories and, as in the case of the relative risk model, ranks to describe systems. Second, interactions between multiple stressors can be combined using several pathways and the conditional probability tables (CPT) to calculate outcomes. Entropy analysis was the method used to document model sensitivity. As with the RRM, the method has now been applied to a wide series of sites and questions, from forestry management, to invasive species, to disease, the interaction of ecological and human health endpoints, the flows of large rivers, and now the efficacy and risks of synthetic biology. The application of both methods have pointed to the incompleteness of the fields of environmental chemistry, toxicology, and risk assessment. The low frequency of exposure-response experiments and proper analysis have limited the available outputs for building appropriate CPTs. Interactions between multiple chemicals, landscape characteristics, population dynamics and community structure have been poorly characterized even for critical environments. A better strategy might have been to first look at the requirements of modern risk assessment approaches and then set research priorities. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:79-94. © 2020 SETAC.

Quantification of an Adverse Outcome Pathway Network by Bayesian Regression and Bayesian Network Modeling.

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework has gained international recognition as a systematic approach linking mechanistic processes to toxicity endpoints. Nevertheless, successful implementation into risk assessments is still limited by the lack of quantitative AOP models (qAOPs) and assessment of uncertainties. The few published qAOP models so far are typically based on data-demanding systems biology models. Here, we propose a less data-demanding approach for quantification of AOPs and AOP networks, based on regression modeling and Bayesian networks (BNs). We demonstrate this approach with the proposed AOP #245, "Uncoupling of photophosphorylation leading to reduced ATP production associated growth inhibition," using a small experimental data set from exposure of Lemna minor to the pesticide 3,5-dichlorophenol. The AOP-BN reflects the network structure of AOP #245 containing 2 molecular initiating events (MIEs), 3 key events (KEs), and 1 adverse outcome (AO). First, for each dose-response and response-response (KE) relationship, we quantify the causal relationship by Bayesian regression modeling. The regression models correspond to dose-response functions commonly applied in ecotoxicology. Secondly, we apply the fitted regression models with associated uncertainty to simulate 10 000 response values along the predictor gradient. Thirdly, we use the simulated values to parameterize the conditional probability tables of the BN model. The quantified AOP-BN model can be run in several directions: 1) prognostic inference, run forward from the stressor node to predict the AO level; 2) diagnostic inference, run backward from the AO node; and 3) omnidirectionally, run from the intermediate MIEs and/or KEs. Internal validation shows that the AOP-BN can obtain a high accuracy rate, when run is from intermediate nodes and when a low resolution is acceptable for the AO. Although the performance of this AOP-BN is limited by the small data set, our study demonstrates a proof-of-concept: the combined use of Bayesian regression modeling and Bayesian network modeling for quantifying AOPs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:147-164. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Evaluation of a Bayesian Network for Strengthening the Weight of Evidence to Predict Acute Fish Toxicity from Fish Embryo Toxicity Data.

The use of fish embryo toxicity (FET) data for hazard assessments of chemicals, in place of acute fish toxicity (AFT) data, has long been the goal for many environmental scientists. The FET test was first proposed as a replacement to the standardized AFT test nearly 15 y ago, but as of now, it has still not been accepted as a standalone replacement by regulatory authorities such as the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). However, the ECHA has indicated that FET data can be used in a weight of evidence (WoE) approach, if enough information is available to support the conclusions related to the hazard assessment. To determine how such a WoE approach could be applied in practice has been challenging. To provide a conclusive WoE for FET data, we have developed a Bayesian network (BN) to incorporate multiple lines of evidence to predict AFT. There are 4 different lines of evidence in this BN model: 1) physicochemical properties, 2) AFT data from chemicals in a similar class or category, 3) ecotoxicity data from other trophic levels of organisms (e.g., daphnids and algae), and 4) measured FET data. The BN model was constructed from data obtained from a curated database and conditional probabilities assigned for the outcomes of each line of evidence. To evaluate the model, 20 data-rich chemicals, containing a minimum of 3 AFT and FET test data points, were selected to ensure a suitable comparison could be performed. The results of the AFT predictions indicated that the BN model could accurately predict the toxicity interval for 80% of the chemicals evaluated. For the remaining chemicals (20%), either daphnids or algae were the most sensitive test species, and for those chemicals, the daphnid or algal hazard data would have driven the environmental classification. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:452-460. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Integration of Chlorpyrifos Acetylcholinesterase Inhibition, Water Temperature, and Dissolved Oxygen Concentration into a Regional Scale Multiple Stressor Risk Assessment Estimating Risk to Chinook Salmon.

We estimated the risk to populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) due to chlorpyrifos (CH), water temperature (WT), and dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) in 4 watersheds in Washington State, USA. The watersheds included the Nooksack and Skagit Rivers in the Northern Puget Sound, the Cedar River in the Seattle-Tacoma corridor, and the Yakima River, a tributary of the Columbia River. The Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) was used to conduct this ecological risk assessment and was modified to contain an acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibition pathway parameterized using data from CH toxicity data sets. The completed BN-RRM estimated risk at a population scale to Chinook salmon employing classical matrix modeling runs up to 50-y timeframes. There were 3 primary conclusions drawn from the model-building process and the risk calculations. First, the incorporation of an AChE inhibition pathway and the output from a population model can be combined with environmental factors in a quantitative fashion. Second, the probability of not meeting the management goal of no loss to the population ranges from 65% to 85%. Environmental conditions contributed to a larger proportion of the risk compared to CH. Third, the sensitivity analysis describing the influence of the variables on the predicted risk varied depending on seasonal conditions. In the summer, WT and DO were more influential than CH. In the winter, when the seasonal conditions are more benign, CH was the driver. Fourth, in order to reach the management goal, we calculated the conditions that would increase juvenile survival, adult survival, and a reduction in toxicological effects. The same process in this example should be applicable to the inclusion of multiple pesticides and to more descriptive population models such as those describing metapopulations. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;00:1-15. © 2019 SETAC.

Using Bayesian networks to predict risk to estuary water quality and patterns of benthic environmental DNA in Queensland.

Predictive modeling can inform natural resource management by representing stressor-response pathways in a logical way and quantifying the effects on selected endpoints. This study demonstrates a risk assessment model using the Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) approach to predict water quality and, for the first time, eukaryote environmental DNA (eDNA) data as a measure of benthic community structure. Environmental DNA sampling is a technique for biodiversity measurements that involves extracting DNA from environmental samples, amplicon sequencing a targeted gene, in this case the 18s rDNA gene (which targets eukaryotes), and matching the sequences to organisms. Using a network of probability distributions, the BN-RRM model predicts risk to water quality objectives and the relative richness of benthic taxa groups in the Noosa, Pine, and Logan estuaries in Southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia. The model predicts Dissloved Oxygen more accurately than the chlorophyll a water quality endpoint and photosynthesizing benthos more accurately than heterotrophs. Results of BN-RRM modeling given current inputs indicate that the water quality and benthic assemblages of the Noosa are relatively homogenous across all sub risk regions, and that the Noosa has a 73%-92% probability of achieving water quality objectives, indicating a low relative risk. Conversely, the Middle Logan, Middle Pine, and Lower Pine regions are much less likely to meet objectives (15%-55% probability), indicating a relatively higher risk to water quality in those regions. The benthic community richness patterns associated with risk in the Noosa are high Diatom relative richness and low Green Algae relative richness. The only benthic pattern consistently associated with the relatively higher risk to water quality is high richness of fungi species. The BN-RRM model provides a basis for future predictions and adaptive management at the direction of resource managers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;15:93-111. © 2018 SETAC.

A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape.

The multiple stressor ecological risk assessment for the mercury-contaminated South River and upper Shenandoah River using the Bayesian network-relative risk model.

We have conducted a regional scale risk assessment using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to calculate the ecological risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. Four biological endpoints (smallmouth bass, white sucker, Belted Kingfisher, and Carolina Wren) and 4 abiotic endpoints (Fishing River Use, Swimming River Use, Boating River Use, and Water Quality Standards) were included in this risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although mercury (Hg) contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, other chemical and physical stressors were evaluated. There were 3 primary conclusions from the BN-RRM results. First, risk varies according to location, type and quality of habitat, and exposure to stressors within the landscape. The patterns of risk can be evaluated with reasonable certitude. Second, overall risk to abiotic endpoints was greater than overall risk to biotic endpoints. By including both biotic and abiotic endpoints, we are able to compare risk to endpoints that represent a wide range of stakeholder values. Third, whereas Hg reduction is the regulatory priority for the South River, Hg is not the only stressor driving risk to the endpoints. Ecological and habitat stressors contribute risk to the endpoints and should be considered when managing this site. This research provides the foundation for evaluating the risks of multiple stressors of the South River to a variety of endpoints. From this foundation, tools for the evaluation of management options and an adaptive management tools have been forged. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:85-99. © 2016 SETAC.

Using the Bayesian network relative risk model risk assessment process to evaluate management alternatives for the South River and upper Shenandoah River, Virginia.

We have conducted a series of regional scale risk assessments using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to evaluate the efficacy of 2 remediation options in the reduction of risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. The 2 remediation options were 1) bank stabilization (BST) and 2) the implementation of best management practices for agriculture (AgBMPs) to reduce Hg input in to the river. Eight endpoints were chosen to be part of the risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although Hg contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, multiple chemical and physical stressors were evaluated in this analysis. Specific models were built that incorporated the changes expected from AgBMP and BST and were based on our previous research. Changes in risk were calculated, and sensitivity and influence analyses were conducted on the models. The assessments indicated that AgBMP would only slightly change risk in the study area but that negative impacts were also unlikely. Bank stabilization would reduce risk to Hg for the smallmouth bass and belted kingfisher and increase risk to abiotic water quality endpoints. However, if care were not taken to prevent loss of nesting habitat to belted kingfisher, an increase in risk to that species would occur. Because Hg was only one of several stressors contributing to risk, the change in risk depended on the specific endpoint. Sensitivity analysis provided a list of variables to be measured as part of a monitoring program. Influence analysis provided the range of maximum and minimum risk values for each endpoint and remediation option. This research demonstrates the applicability of ecological risk assessment and specifically the BN-RRM as part of a long-term adaptive management scheme for managing contaminated sites. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:100-114. © 2016 SETAC.